THE LIMITS TO HUBRIS.

Traditionally, I would be loathe to slip into some version of the sky is falling mantra or to that other favorite expression of existential despair … this is the most important election in our history. Normally, I check myself when tempted to join the legions of doomsayers or the apocalyptic end gamers that seem to flourish these days. After all, I am in my ninth decade on this earth. I was born when the German Nazis still controlled Europe. I have lived through Political assassinations, the Cold War and the fear of nuclear annihilation, the oft violent civil rights era and other societal transformations, various economic and technological shocks, Islamic terrorism, and several periods of economic angst and dislocation. Still, the nation endured and, in most cases, prospered. The promised end days never materialized.

In each earlier trauma, I might worry (especially about a nuclear winter) but remained sanguine. At some level I always retained a core belief that adults were in charge of things. In the end, reason would prevail.

I recall one vignette from the 1980s where the Soviet Union’s computer defense system lit up like a Christmas tree. The readings indicated that a barrage of ballistic missiles were headed into Russia in a sneak attack. Without time to consult Moscow, the Soviet General looking at his computer screens had to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike before it was too late. After a brief pause, he chose to do nothing  … confiding in his anxious staff that he could not believe that the Americans were that stupid. His instincts were correct. In fact, he was looking at a computer malfunction.

Today, I look about me. In truth, I cannot say that the Americans are not that stupid. From the evidence about us, somewhere close to half of the nation has been on a steady diet of stupid pills for some time now. If ingested, this mysterious narcotic impedes rational thought, stimulates delusional thinking, and encourages self-destructive actions. What else might explain the election of Donald Trump … TWICE. Everyone is entitled to one mistake but his reelection is simply beyond reason.

The bottom line is this. While I’ve heard all the rationalizations justifying Donald’s success, I cannot credit nor comprehend them. White rage, various racial replacement theories, transformational cuture shock, and endless variations on such themes gave been offered to explain why even working-class types have flocked to Donald in recent years.

The most astounding aspect of today’s political situation is that those pretending to be the most religious have come to adore this most degenerate and disgusting person conceivable as their personal hero. There is no way to justify the adoption of such a thoroughly corrupt person as their spiritual and political savior. There simply is no conceivable rational explanation.

Take Evangelicals as an example! Their MAGA allegiance reveals the utter rot and hypocrisy at the center of organized religion (with notable exceptions). It is remarkable that those pretending to be devoted to Christ so totally reject his core teachings so completely. It is one of our more puzzling ironies.

In addition to Evangelicals, the shift of allegiance among American workers remains an equally puzzling trend. Okay, it is marginally rational that working stiffs find that Democrats focus on some issues and causes that are orthogonal to the core interests of their tribe (as opposed to the intellectual elite). Dems do drift toward abstract issues of what is right.

That fact, however, cannot come close to excusing the bizarre reality that workers have turned to a party, and a man, that never has lifted a finger to address their most basic concerns. Trump has lived in a golden cage his whole life while the GOP has made it their exclusive purpose to further enrich the economic elite. Just look at the record … in recent decades, employment and wage gains have improved more under Democratic rule as compared to when the GOP has run things.

While the working class has voted against its self-interest in inexplicable numbers, Americans as a whole have remained passive in the face of MAGA efforts to subvert our American experiment in democracy. The threats to the rule of law that Donald has brought to the table are too numerous to relate here. Clearly, though, the man has delusional visions of monarchical rule without substantive restraint on his powers. One thing is indisputable. He thirsts for authoritarian control. Look at his willingness, no eagerness, to issue broad executive orders. Just the other day he mused whether he could appoint himself as head of the Federal Reserve. Last night, he launched an unprovoked air attack on a middle eastern nation absent Congressional review or approval. Surely the instincts of an autocrat.

On the other hand, the guiding premise at the creation of our constitutional government was a constraint on the exercise of power. Excessive authority would be managed  through an elaborate array of checks and balances. The Founding Fathers were terrified that monarchical tendencies would creep back into the fabric of our governing institutions. George Washington, though a committed Federalist (as opposed to the more radical  Jeffersonians in a states-rights sense), modeled his presidency to avoid all trappings of centralized power. Now we have Trump mimicking the worst autocratic rulers by having a military parade.

Nothing attacks the rule of law and constitutional protections like Trump’s aggressive deportation campaign focused on immigrants. This is straight out of the classic autocratic playbook. Pick a scapegoat, rile the public up to a fever pitch, and then attack your trumped-up target with extraordinary aggression. You emploit the fear you have created as the excuse you garner more power to yourself. Naturally, there is mission creep …now they want anyone coming to America to reveal their social media posts … no questionable opinions (anti-Trump?) will be permitted. So much for first amendment rights.

Nothing represents this tired,  though thoroughly frightening, attempt to usurp power than the ICE assaults taking place across the nation. Armed masked men raid schools, courts, churches, places of employment, and communities to sweep up people for reasons only they know. Absent even minimal due process, we cannot know whether these abductions are reasonable or legal or even minimally justified.

What we do know is that this ICE mission easily is the training ground for the creation of a MAGA secret police. Already, we have seen public officials (including a U.S. Senator and the controller of New York) threatened, arrested, and dragged off for merely asking members of the new Gestapo to show the legal basis for their actions. When the Democratic Governor of the state representing the 4th largest economy in the world is threatened with arrest, you know you are one tiny step from an authoritarian state.

Things have reached the point that even a passive American populace is taking notice. The protests of Trump’s power grab on June 14 have reached 13 million participants by some counts, though such estimates may be overstated with a bit of wishful thinking being thrown in.

Still, the masses of protesters on that day had to catch the attention of Trump and his minions. The higher estimates approach 3.5 percent of the population … a level of protest that has brought down authoritarian regimes in the past.

The latent issue.

And what is Trump’s plan. He will try the classic misdirection of let’s focus on the brown skin immigrants as he pursues his top domestic policy goal … more tax cuts for the wealthy elite. That giveaway will add at least 2 or 3 trillion more dollars to our debt. Remember that his trade policies during his first term hurt farmers badly, necessitating billions in farm relief. Where will the billions come from this time around as we sink into a depressed economy burdened by tariff related inflation and diminished productivity.

The issues being touched upon above are the ones that have been capturing the most public attention. They are the ones grabbing the headlines. Other destructive actions are in play that are less noticed and yet may prove more consequential in the long run. Let me give you my take on MAGA actions that may be more difficult to redress.

There are a whole set of administration actions and pronouncements that, taken together, represent the return of Fortress America. This concept of America is one that reflects a delusional level of hubris. In Donald’s mind, we are so powerful and essential to the world that we can bully and order others around and they must bend to our power. In his view, we are self-sustaining and don’t need anyone else. We are the big dog. They need us, we need no one.

Think about the manner in which Ukrainian President Zelensky was mistreated by Trump and Vance in the White House. Trump said at the time that Zelensky had to buckle under since he had nowhere else to go. And think about how Trump is driving away foreign students, threatening to take control of Canada and Greenland, imposing retaliatory tariffs on friend and foe alike, and unilaterally attempting to dismantle a Western alliance that has prevented a world war since 1945.

These, and other actions, are serving to isolate the U.S. from historic allies. It also begs the question … why? I cannot give a definitive answer. However, it strikes me that someone like a Trump suffers from a case of pathological hubris (narcissism on steroids). In his view, he must be the smartest and most powerful person in the room. To work collaboratively implies that one must listen to others, even compromise. A bully, on the other hand, simply wants to push others around.

Already we see consequences from this go it alone approach to the world. We have become a pariah nation with an increasing number of others issuing travel advisories to tourists coming to the States. Tourism from several nations, Canada is a good example, is down significantly. We risk a brain drain as foreign students seek schools in alternative countries to pursue their education. Look at a recent list of top universities. Asian schools increasingly are found throughout and their prestige is growing fast. We risk forfeiting our position as the center of the scientific world.

Trump’s Tariff fiasco is a case in point. In his delusional mind, tariffs were a panacea. They would raise revenue for the U.S., make our products more competitive, and restore America’s preeminence in manufacturing. Yeah, right.

The problem is that Trump is ignorant of economics and history. In his first, and soon aborted, go at his trade wars Trump levied tariffs virtually across the board. Oddly enough, he assumed that any trade deficit we had with another nation meant that they were cheating us. He sees everything in a transactional manner where he is supposed to win. In reality, these tariffs merely add to the price of foreign goods that we have to pay. They also lower exports when others pay tariffs on our goods. Just look at the Smoot-Hawly tariffs during the great depression. Rather than helping, they reduced global trade by 65 percent and deepened the hurt for all.

What Trump really fails to understand is that we are not as powerful as he believes we are, or that he assumes he is. His innate hubris led him to conclude that others had to bend to our will. They had no choice. But that presumption is patently false. What happened when Trump and Vance bullied Zelensky. Did he cave? No! Did Ukraine lose the war. No! The rest of NATO filled the void. America simply was pushed aside. At the most recent G-7 meeting in Canada, Trump left after day 1. Who replaced him. … Zelensky. America is marginalized.

And there is the big lesson in all this. Beginning in WWI, and surely by WWII, the United States had become the stabilizing force in the world economy and in political affairs. As the British Pound declined in value, the dollar became the world’s premier currency, held in reserve by virtually all and used to settle trade and other debts. It functioned as such because all had faith in the way Anerica was governed, in our stability, and in our willingness to maintain a strong currency. Let’s face it, currencies are pieces of paper. Their intrinsic value, when all is said and done, is a matter of faith.

Trumps rather immature TACO (Trump always chickens out) leadership or lack thereof (tariffs are on, then off) is tanking that faith. Worse, the mismanagement of our debt load may now be irreversible. Our deficits run in excess of 20 percent of annual spending while the accrued debt now stands at 120 percent of GDP. It costs us over 1 billion per day for interest payments.

Our contemporary Nero.

The world will go on. America, however, will discover it is not indispensible. The future power brokers will be found in the EU and in Asia. Future students will be taught the lessons learned from that era when America imploded and declined into a second rate power. Thus goes all arrogant empires.


4 responses to “THE LIMITS TO HUBRIS.”

  1. Tom. What a shame a reasonably intelligent individual cannot divorce himself from wild rhetoric. Statements such as “…as their spiritual and political savior. There simply is no conceivable rational explanation…” Indeed there i no conceivable rational explanation; what we see here is your penchant for wild declarations. Were it not for that, your arguments would ring unpreturbably solid, as it is, you come off as merely another rabid fool gnashing his gums. Why waste valid points with ridiculous assertions? Savior? Democrats, Republicans, and Independents of religion, none of them deem President Loose Cannon a “savior.”

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    • I can appreciate your response to the positions that I’ve expressed as of late. But those are not likely to change, nor have I changed much. Still, what you see today would look radically different from how I would have come across during my decades as a policy wonk. Then, I worked across political lines, sought out compromise and collaboration, and engaged in reasonable discourse. THEN, such things were possible. Reason and evidence based analysis were the currency of our professions. All that is gone.

      I’m long retired. But I have a rather large group of acquaintances, all if whom were very successful professionals (from a variety of disciplines) with advanced degrees from America’s top universities. Virtually to a person, we are stunned by how far America has declined. Every conversation we have is steeped in disbelief and despair. Unless the country finds its way out of this nightmare, I suspect we will continue to call it as we see it.

      BUT I would never question your view if things. I really appreciate your articulate view if things.

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      • I am thankful you stand head and shoulders above me and did not read all of my comment as derogatory. Indeed America/Americans have forgotten the art of civil discourse. There is however, no monopoly held by Conservatives as far as apparent willingness to enter into fisticuffs at the drop of a slur, to resort to fabrication when convenient truth is not at hand.. I am reminded of the Wm F and Gore Vidal in confrontation in ’68. Little boys in a tiff; but today the little boys carry atomic baseball bats. If ever we figure out how to return to listening, reasoning and re-learning the art of compromise, we well have just approached half the problem. Bad ideas require dismissal. Ineffective policy should be abandoned, blatantly disruptive immorality cannot be encouraged, and the whims of minorities cannot be used to run roughshod over the majority. If ever we see time of sanity in the US we then must deal with the insanity of the world where one nation believes it acceptable to murder, kidnap and trade dead hostages for live hostages in return while condemning their opponents for acting merely in self-defense. We need new gods; the ones we have do not serve us well as a world community. Do not, Thomas, stop arguing from positions of sanity, but recognize that certain among us are rabidly intractable.

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  2. Very well said, as usual. We all need to remind ourselves that we are vulnerable passengers on this fragile planet. In the end, we need collaboration more than competition or contention. But I cannot escape my own prediliction that we also need strong doses of honesty, even as we recognize the inherent subjectivity of this illusive quality. I have come to recognize that the greatest benefit of age is honesty. I can speak from my heart. My favorite mantra when speaking my mind (what I also see as emotional ranting) goes as follows … what are they going to do, fire me? Oh, so very liberating.

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