Is the American age of hegemony and quasi-global authority on its last legs? If so, the so-called American Age will have been short run indeed.

Such a complex topic demands more than can be embraced by a brief blog. Yet, there are a few tantalizing clues that suggest we, as a dominant world power, are in our end game. I can’t cover them all, but let’s start with these:

1. Excessive debt. With a structural deficit of $36 trillion dollars (and growing), we just might have a problem. The fact that we only raise revenue to pay for 75 to 80 percent of our annual outlays (we borrow the rest) suggests this issue will only get worse. This aggregate debt makes us vulnerable to others (we depend on foreign nations to buy our bonds) while servicing that debt crowds out spending on other critical needs. And by the way, while spending is always an issue, the big culprit in the U.S. debt question is selfishness … we want too much for nothing. In particular, there is an unwillingness to demand that the economic winners here pay their reasonable share. You know you have a dysfunctional resource generating system when those that can pay the most actually pay the least in far too many cases. What led to the French Revolution in the late 18th century? It was excessive sovereign debt caused by lavish internal spending and by financing the American Revolutionary War (an unnecessary foreign adventure).

2. We are a nation beset by deep and divisive cultural conflicts. As I’ve said (ad nauseum) we are at war with ourselves. Put too simply, one half of the country wants a mythological land of white nativist supremacy, one of plenty without sacrifice, and desires some form of authoritarian control (reminiscent of the ante-bellum South). The other half seeks a more open, pluralistic society that is both inclusive and which offers distributed opportunity sets (the DEI kerfuffle). As Abe Lincoln first warned in his 1838 Lyceeum speech in Springfield Illinois, internal cultural conflict could could easily tear our Republic apart. Later, in his Senate debate with Steven Douglas, he went on to warn that a divided house could not long stand. To introduce a Roman equivalent, by the 2nd or 3rd century AD, the core culture of the empire was divided between what were considered real Romans and the others (wanna-be Romans from conquered territories). This is much like our internal debate about who is a real American.

3. National overreach. The Pax Americana era wasted much of our treasure over the past 8 decades or so for no substantive purposes. Since WWII, we have engaged in a few legitimate foreign excursions, but also quite a few questionable ones. We could start with our support of France’s continued occupation of Indochina in the late 1940s (which led to our own Vietnam war). Then we kept overextending ourselves in far too many instances, including Bush’s Iraq intervention over chemical weapons that never existed and our longest-ever conflict in Afghanistan (futile no matter how horrific the Taliban are). Our recent history seems similar to the Roman Empire’s constant battles on the periphery of its territories as the core of the empire struggled with internal challenges.

4. Hyper-pluralism. As I’ve recently explored in prior blogs, we are in an emerging age of fractional bubbles (or hyper-pluralism) in both normative and ideological senses. There had been a time when certain consensual understandings were generally accepted by most, at least in principle. There existed a general sense of what it meant to be American. We theoretically embraced a belief in the rule of law, in the importance of distributed authority (checks and balances), of fair play where all should coexist in reasonable harmony and play by common rules (the melting pot), of a reasonable opportunity to succeed (our Horatio Alger myth), and an abiding faith and confidence in our basic institutions (including government). These were elements of a common cultural consensus or understanding. Now, it is survival of the fittest, all for themselves in a form of hyper-individualism, and a political machine dedicated to placing a new version of nativist white supremacy as a dominant national vision. Again, I am reminded of the incoherent babbel within the late Roman empire as local cultures from the Levant region to Hadrian’sWall competed for survival or even dominance.

5. A yearning for autocracy. In such periods of uncertainty and chaos, people lean toward a preference for authoritarian rule. They drift toward the rhetoric of the strongman who promises to ease their fears, strike at their enemies (scapegoats), and solve their problems painlessly. Democracy appears irresolute and messy, as did the Weimar Republic when the Great Depression suddenly halted Germany’s post WWI recovery. When external crises do not warrant a national panic, the would-be strongman gins up one or more bogeymen- type monsters while promising instant relief. Recall Trump claiming the country was in a deep crisis on the verge of collapse when our economy was, in fact, envied by the world and when most social metrics (including crime rates) were the best in decades. Even inflation had subsided to traditional levels in 2024. I am reminded that Rome abandoned its Republican form of rule just as its power and reach was approaching a zenith. And never forget, strongman rule oft segues into government by a kakistocracy where the least competent rule (RFK as head of HHS, really?). And don’t forget that Vladimir Putin has reintroduced a virtual feudal system in Russia as that country struggles in Ukraine, a minor power.

6. A denial of science and data. A corollary of strongman rule is an eruption of Orwellian 1984ish disregard for truth and facts. Fiction becomes belief. Propoganda becomes evidence. Conviction about one’s values and selfish aspirations trump (pun intended) what had been consensual and proven truths. At one point in my lifetime, there were common arbiters of what was real and believable. Political lies were told, of course. Still, the independent news networks strove to deliver authentic information the best they could. Rules existed to ensure both sides of most issues would be heard. Let us not forget that a sitting President (Richard Nixon) was forced to step down for breaking the law and fomenting crude misinformation … by members of his own political party. Today, we have multiple versions of the truth, and the sitting chief executive merely labels everything he dislikes (or is even mildly critical of him) as fake news, all without serious blowback. Worse, his cult-like followers accept this nonsense without question. I am reminded of the Roman emperor who designated his favorite horse as a member of the senate, and neither the elite nor the public were powerless or perhaps unwilling to object.

7. Reluctance to invest in public goods. We might well wish to reassess how and where we are allocating our critical public investments. It strikes me that our perspective currently is overly short-term and lacks vision. There is a shocking disinterest in strategic thinking about our longer-term future. The U.S. was one of the first nations to introduce universal primary education. Partly because of its democratic ethos, it developed (with significant public support) one of the best higher education systems in the world. Sometime after WWI, the States wrested hegemony of the global scientific community from Europe which helped lead us to the halcyon days of unrivaled technological leadership. Public investments in R&I (research and innovation) accelerated to the top, especially during the Republican administration of Dwight Eisenhower (a post-Sputnik boom). In recent times, those investments have lagged. In particular, our universities have come under increasing attack, public (non-proprietary) investments in science have stalled, and fundamental faith in expertise is continually challenged. You know you are in trouble when rigorous research is demonized, and Tic-Tok posts replace science labs as repositories of truth.

8. Cronyism over merit. Of course, one of the more transparent signs of national decay is found in the recent push to replace the federal workforce from one based on merit and competence to one based on loyalty and ideological affinity. Merit based appointments have been the norm in civil service hiring since the Grover Cleveland administration. Eviscerating that sacred principle, however, is one of the main tenets of Project 2025. That plan would turn the bureaucracy from a competency -based workforce dedicated to public service to one that serves the whims of a single man. The entire plan is a vision to replace our current republic with an autocracy or perhaps a plutocracy. I am reminded of the time when President Reagan was shot. He allegedly asked the doctors treating him if they were Republicans. He was jesting, of course, but there is a lesson there. If you were seeking a surgeon to do open heart surgery on you, would their political preferences be the only question you ask? Might you be interested in their medical training and expertise as well? I’ve been in government myself and have consulted with government for decades. It may look easy from the outside, but it is not!

Doing public policy well is very difficult. In some respects, it is more difficult than running a business. The private sector has obvious, transparent goals to pursue. The public sector continuously attempts to achieve multiple ends under terrible resource constraints that are externally imposed and where accountability oft becomes political sport. It is not for amateurs or the faint of heart unless you don’t care about outcomes. When Europe was laboring under a feudal system, China was building a robust (if self-contained) empire. They did it based on Confucian principles … a merit-oriented and ethically-based bureaucracy.

9. Unrealistic expectations. Another sign of internal decay is found in a widespread sense of entitlement. Aging empires become soft. Many citizens expect to be coddled and anticipate living in relative comfort absent much personal sacrifice. Effort and realistic ambitions diminish as the anticipation of comfort evolves into embedded expectation. We see grade creep in schools and universities as teachers are afraid to assert real standards in their classes. We see business managers reluctant to hire young people since they lack minimal behaviors essential to success in the workplace … including basics like punctuality, the ability to accept correction, and the interpersonal skills necessary for corporate cooperation. Almost 10 percent of young job candidates now want their parents to accompany them to initial job interviews. At that age, I couldn’t wait to travel halfway around the world to contribute and to test myself. Again, with a Roman analogy … I am reminded of the bread and circuses showered on citizens to keep them sated and unquestioning.

10. Peering into the abyss. Oddly enough, I started this blog, as I’ve started so many others, with a single, simple thought. We are losing our edge in the world. Alas, my brain once again ran away from me as it is wont to do. That initial point was prompted by the kerfuffle surrounding the emergence of DeepSeek, the AI-R1 innovation recently coming out of China. This version of artificial intelligence apparently outperforms its western (propriety) competitors at a fraction of their costs. Think about this, META (Facebook) alone invested some $180 billion in AI development. Various venture capitalists bet $132 billion just in 2024 on AI development. Yet, a single Chinese firm created an amazing technology in some 2 years for about a $6 million dollar investment. Shockingly, they developed an open-source system where the code is available to all (anathema to Western capitalism). What happened to Communist paranoia and secrecy? How can that be? That is a question deserving deeper thought.

But one thing is clear. Asia, in general, is leaving us behind in creating young technological talent and perhaps entrepreneurial innovation. Many of their youth still come to the U.S. for higher education, and a few stay to buttress our technological infrastructure. But will that last much longer? Unfortunately, Republicans attack our universities and starve them of resources. Now, we threaten to deport foreign talent desperately needed to maintain our position in the world. Talk about a myopic vision. In the late 15th century, Spain expelled foreign elements from their shores, deeming them undesirable and unnecessary. Their global position began to decline after a while. The Dutch received some of this rejected talent. They flourished well beyond what their size would have suggested. Diversity can be a blessing.

These sky-is-falling types of prognoses are all too common. Many turn out to be wrong, or at least premature. Perhaps my musings fall into this category, which I hope is true. On the other hand, perhaps it is all too real this time around. One observation bothers me greatly. The MAGA crowd has perfected the art of psychological projection. They accuse the other side of the very sins which they have mastered to the nth degree. Trump promises to eviscerate DOJ and the FBI because they have weaponized the system of justice (for which there is scant evidence). Then, he can immediately turn these sacred institutions into lethal weapons against his long list of enemies, and do so with a vengeance. I’ve never seen an outgoing president preemptively pardon respected public servants because his successor threatened revenge on them. Can the concentration camps be far behind? Let me end with one wish, one which adorns one of my favorite caps … Make America Think Again.

Perhaps it is time to stop, reflect, think hard, and somehow get us back on track. Sigh! That is easier said than done.