Our political landscape is not a constant … it evolves over time. When the modern GOP was launched in 1854, it was clearly the progressive party of America. This fledgling faction wanted to limit slavery, had deep suspicions about states-rights, and wished to increase federal investments in the national infrastructure. On the other hand, the Democratic Party was centered largely in the south and among some urban immigrant groups. It supported the oligarchic tendencies that underly autocratic rule among slave states. In addition, it was eager to let the Confederacy secede to end hostilities.

Over time, the character of the parties evolved in surprising directions. The Republican Party emerged as supporters of big business by the time of the gilded age. Dems, on the other hand, became the defenders of Western and rural ‘white’ progressive interests even as they yet defended racial apartheid. It wasn’t until the New Deal of FDR that minorities started flocking to the Democratic Party, a shift partly attributed to Eleanor’s (FDR’s spouse) support for Black causes. Then, with Lyndon Johnson’s passage of the 1960s Civil Rights bills, a full partisan political realignment ensued. The Dems emerged as progressive stalwarts while the GOP started their long drift to the extreme right.

Demographic allegiances also shifted significantly since the 1960s. When John Kennedy won the White House in 1960, his extremely narrow victory (by little more than 100,000 votes) was largely powered by support from average working class Americans, including many living in rural areas. The working class went for the junior senator from Massachusetts by a massive 2 to 1 margin. White, college educated voters preferred Richard Nixon by a similar majority.

Fast forward six decades, and everything is reversed. In 2020, Joe Biden won with the support of college educated voters while Trump claimed the loyalty of the working classes and rural interests by margins similar to those found six decades earlier, except in the opposite directions.

In my youth, farmers had been thankful to the Dems for bailing them out of the depths of the depression, for stabilizing farm prices, and for investing in rural development. Those memories diminished as the optics associated with the Dems brand went negative. Somehow, the party was now deemed both elitist and catering to the needs of various urban minority interests. As I would drive through bucolic Wisconsin farmlands in recent years, all I would see are signs for Republican candidates. (One small exception … the city of Ripon Wisconsin, where the Republican Party was first formed to fight the extension of slavery, surprisingly went for the liberal candidate by a small margin in a recent statewide supreme court race of national import).

Therein lies one of the great mysteries to us residents of the elite, urban bubble. How could struggling working class voters (or those living in hard-pressed rural communities) favor what has become a hard-right reactionary political cabal … the MAGA dominated Republican Party. If there has been any consistent theme within the GOP since the Reagan revolution, it is that the new party of Lincoln cares only about one interest group … the uber wealthy. Every social and economic policy challenge leads to the same solution, more tax cuts favoring the rich. As the saying goes, every problem looks like a nail if your only tool is a hammer.

Let us examine the plans of the titular autocrat running the GOP at present, the would-be king Donald Trump. How would hard working-class Americans and rural workers fare given his policy predilections?

1. High on Trump’s agenda is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts that expire this year. The GOP plan being proposed in the Senate is like most Republican initiatives … it highly favors the wealthy. The 2017 plan resulted in benefits averaging some $60,000 for those at the top of the income pyramid compared to $500 on average for those in the bottom 60 percent of the income distribution. Worse, this version of the extension is projected to add almost 6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade (see below).

Annual deficits add to our structural debt. This debt requires continuous servicing unless we wish to default and damage irreparably our ability to borrow in the future. Already, paying the interest on our $36 trillion dollar debt has mushroomed to a major budget outlay. This crowds out other possible spending priorities, especially on programs designed to help workers and farmers.

2. Let’s look at Donald’s favorite cure-all for everything…reciprocal tariffs (targetted on specific nations) and general tariffs. He has even promised to replace the income tax with tariffs since he apparently believes they are paid by foreign governments (as opposed by American consumers). In fact, they do function as a kind of tax on foreign goods. Obviously, Trump’s genius plan immediately ran afoul of reality, thus resulting in erratic decision-making and costly market instability.

If Trump executes what he wants, estimates place the cost to typical American families at about $4,700. That’s a huge hit on the working class. And farmers, they don’t fare any better. The last mini trade war cost soy bean farmers in America almost $30 billion as American exports in that commodity were replaced by Brazilian farmers.

3. As DOGE slashes their way through the federal bureaucracy, the claim is made that waste and fraud are being eliminated. In fact, they haven’t even addressed step number one if that were the case … actually defining waste and fraud. They are merely slashing anything they don’t like.

For example, the hard right has always hated universities and the educated, so higher education (and the research they do that keeps America competitive) are under attack. But the real damage will be to programs that assist average people. The cuts to big ticket items such as Medicaid and Social Security (personnel) will be devastating to the average Jane and Joe.

Cuts in federal spending are justified in the minds of the GOP as providing cover for further tax breaks which, as we know, inevitably favor the wealthy. In effect, this is merely another tactic for redistributing wealth from those who haven’t got much to those who have way too much. That is, this is clearly a way to further enhance income and wealth inequality.

4. Let’s look at two sets of cuts in particular. Some of the first to be axed (fired) were independent budget and program auditors and evaluators. These are the very people with the skills to actually detect fraud and abuse. The more recent ax fell on personnel in the IRS. Guess what many of these people do, ensure that (mostly) high income individuals pay their fair share in taxes. Absent anyone reviewing what the well-connected do with our federal treasury and with fewer watchdogs holding the wealthy accountable for paying taxes, fraud and waste will have a field day. There will be no one left to protect Joe and Jane from the predatory machinations of the powerful. Yale University experts estimate that the costs in lost revenues attributable to these cuts could approach $2.5 trillion over the next decade, another addition to our ballooning national debt.

5. Speaking of fraud for a moment, rumors are rampant that the tariff gyrations in recent days were a perfect opportunity for insider trading and market manipulation. Now, some will argue that Trump’s erratic decision-making was merely his inability to think coherently … the incompetence argument. The other explanation is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He would tank the market, permitting his wealthy followers to sell equities short. Then, he would delay the implementation of announced tariffs so that his buddies can buy at the trough and enjoy the upside of the sharp recovery. That only works if insiders get an advanced signal. Some have noted that Trump issued a statement that this is a great time to buy just hours before he rescinded many of his reciprocal tariffs. Coincidence, or a signal to those on the inside?

6. I might also mention that Trump has gone after regulations that safeguard average folk. In particular, he has eviscerated consumer protections. Such cuts are always justified as ending burdensome regulations. On the other hand, consumer protections do lessen the costs average folk pay for unscrupulous or manipulative corporate activities. I personally don’t experience government bureaucrats trying to con me out of money. However, I’m bothered daily by cons from unscrupulous persons and companies. They hound me all the freaking time. In the future, they will prey on us without limits. A Dickensian world of survival of the fittest is upon us.

7. Finally, who will suffer when (not if) our economy collapses. While the uber-wealthy might appear to lose some of their net wealth, they have a huge cushion to begin with and will suffer no substantive disadvantage. Moreover, they can move capital easily around the world, taking advantage of shifting fortunes and opportunities. Once again, the recession/depression will fall hardest on the very working class folk and farmers who supported Trump’s election in the first instance.

Let us reconsider the big question. Will working stiffs stay with Trump and the MAGA crowd even as this plutocracy systemically eviscerates their interests? Will they yet claim that this pathological narcissist and privileged autocrat understands their needs and festering angst better than the traditional party of working class folk back in their father and grandfather’s time? I suspect the answer is yes, even if conservatives experience a temporary setback.

For one thing, the right better understands how to appeal emotionally to the less educated population. They aim for emotionally charged narratives that stimulate primitive fears and concerns. Those politicians of a more liberal persuasion tend toward analytical and evidence based appeals. That works in academia and among policy wonks but not on the streets. [NOTE: I did notice that both the liberal and the MAGA candidates in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race of national interest attacked each other on slimy issues, attacks that had nothing to do with what justices actually do. This seemed juvenile to me. Then again, the liberal easily prevailed for a change. Slime, like sex, sells.] It also helps that conservative money and interests now control most media and social media outlets. They are in a prime position to shape public opinion.

The bottom line is this. If I recall correctly, it was W.E.B. Dubois, the first African-American to earn a Doctorate at Harvard, who noted the effectiveness of psychological compensation for working class whites. They will sacrifice potential monetary gains to retain an apparent superiority over those whom they believe challenge their quasi-privileged social position. What Trump and the MAGA crowd know is that the white, working class crowd will pay an exorbitant price to be enabled and supported in their fear-driven hate for those whom they loathe and see as a threat. In their eyes, the Democrats have become the party that defends and tries to help minorities, immigrants, and those who believe and behave differently than they do. They can not forgive that sin, even as Republicans continually violate their class concerns for their own selfish interests.

Therein lies the frustration of liberal snobs (like me). I was raised in a struggling, working-class family. They were firm Democrats (until my mother shocked me by voting for Ike in 56). Watching working people flock to a common grifter and con man like Donald Trump is exceptionally painful and bewildering. It is like watching innocent people, my poor Janes and Joes, being wantonly and repeatedly violated (e.g., raped) while knowing you are impotent to do anything about it.